MOSCOW (AFP) -
Russia gears up for parliamentary elections on September 18 in the grips of its longest economic crisis since President Vladimir Putin took charge in 2000.
Despite falling incomes and rising poverty, parties loyal to the Kremlin strongman look set to dominate the vote yet again.
What role is the crisis playing in the vote and can we expect a change of direction?
- Boom to bust -
During Putin's first decade in power high oil prices fuelled a boom in living standards and impressive growth figures, but also stifled the underlying need to diversify Russia's energy-reliant economy.
Since 2014 Russia has been mired in recession as a double-whammy of lower oil prices and Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis have hammered the economy.
The country's GDP fell by 3.7 percent in 2015 and is expected to drop by at least 0.5 percent this year before a miniscule bounce back in 2017.
The crisis has hit the pocketbooks of middle and lower class Russians as the weak ruble means the price of imported consumer goods has shot up. The number of people living in poverty has soared to a nine-year high while consumer spending has plummeted.
The government has responded with belt-tightening measures as it struggles to meet Putin's demand that the budget deficit should not top 3 percent of GDP.
But economists argue that the authorities need to make far more drastic structural changes to the economy if it wants to avoid years of stagnation.
- Is it the economy, stupid? -
"For the first time in 15 years, elections are taking place at a time when real incomes are flagging," Yekaterina Schulmann of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration told AFP.
Meagre pensions, low family allowances and rising utility bills have been recurring themes in campaigns for a slot in Russia's 450-seat Duma.
Candidates from the left and right have blamed the government for either being too liberal, or not liberal enough.
In the run-up to the vote the authorities pledged in a populist move to make a one-off payment to pensioners to offset their dwindling incomes.
But, while the ruling United Russia has seen its ratings slip, the Kremlin's dominance of the media and political discourse in the country means the economic woes are not yet proving a game-changer.
"This has not had serious consequences for now," Schulmann said.
"We can see some signs of discontent in the popularity ratings of the ruling party and the government, but not in the president's."
Rather than any groundswell against the Kremlin, Schulmann said, the lack of "real choice" offered by the parliamentary polls is most likely to see a large number of people simply skip the vote.
- Change coming? -
Looming big in the Kremlin's planning is the next presidential election in 2018 -- which Putin seems sure to contest even if he hasn't committed himself yet.
Some investors are hoping that respected former finance minister Alexei Kudrin -- who Putin has tasked with coming up with a reform programme -- will return to the government.
But room for manoeuvre is restricted.
The rainy-day reserves Russia accumulated during the oil boom years are getting dangerously low as the government uses them to cover the budget deficit.
That means the next parliament will most likely have to approve austerity budgets, possibly involving unpopular hikes in the age of retirement or taxes, ahead of much-needed structural reforms.
The Kremlin will likely monitor any swerve to the Communists on the left or pro-business parties on the right -- all of which are loyal to Putin -- at the upcoming polls to help determine its next steps.
For some analysts any significant drop in the vote for the Kremlin's United Russia party could see the authorities slam the brakes on any reforms.
"If the ruling party's showing disappoints there is a chance that policymakers would respond by increasing the state's already strong hold on the economy," Liza Ermolenko of Capital Economics told AFP.
